If you buy a $100 bill for $200, everyone would say you made a bad investment. But if that bill turns into $400 over the next two years, the story changes. That is the logic behind the mNAV premium of Bitcoin treasuries.
mNAV (the multiple over Net Asset Value) is calculated by dividing a company's market capitalisation by the market value of its Bitcoin. If Strategy holds 766,000 BTC at $90,000 each, its Bitcoin is worth $68.94 billion. If its market cap is $110 billion, its mNAV is 1.59x. You can compute it for any company with the mNAV calculator.
Why does the market pay that premium? For the future, not the present. MSTR's market cap reflects not only the BTC it holds today but also the BTC it will keep buying tomorrow, next month and next year. If you believe Strategy will buy another 200,000 BTC over the next two years, you are paying for that future Bitcoin not yet on the balance sheet.
This mechanism has a technical name in the finance literature: the growth-option value. In high-growth tech companies, most of the market cap reflects projected future earnings rather than current assets. In Strategy, the same applies but with Bitcoin instead of earnings.
The mNAV premium also incorporates a second factor: the spread between the cost of capital and Bitcoin's return. As long as Strategy can issue preferreds at 8–10% while Bitcoin appreciates more than 20% a year, each new capital raise creates value per share. The market pays a premium for that value-creation machine — exactly what BTC Yield measures.
The mNAV has a natural limit, though. When the premium becomes excessive (above 3x–4x), the mechanism turns fragile: the cost of capital rises, issuance capacity shrinks, and the promise of future accumulation loses credibility. Strategy approached 3.5x mNAV during the late-2024 bull run.
For the investor, the rational call is to compare the current mNAV with the company's own history and with market conditions. An mNAV of 1.5x in a Bitcoin bull market is probably a bargain. An mNAV of 3x in a sideways market is probably a disproportionate risk. Our stress test helps gauge whether a given level is backed by solvency.
Understanding mNAV is understanding that in Bitcoin treasuries you don't invest in what they hold, but in what they're going to do. For the full breakdown of the metric, see the mNAV explained pillar.
