Tool
Bitcoin Treasury Stress Test
Simulate what would happen to each corporate treasury under different Bitcoin price scenarios. Debt coverage, net value per share, ruin price and solvency status — all recalculated in real time as you move the slider.
Disclaimer: SatsIntel is for informational purposes only. It is not an authorized crypto-asset service provider (CASP) and does not provide financial, tax or legal advice. Crypto-assets are high-risk assets and may result in the total loss of the invested capital. See the legal terms.
Stress BTC price
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HEALTHY
10
WATCH
0
STRESS
0
RUIN
0
Strategy
MSTRPure-play Treasury
Twenty One Capital
XXIPure-play Treasury
Metaplanet
3350.TPure-play Treasury
MARA Holdings
MARAMiner + Treasury
Bitcoin Standard Treasury
CEPPure-play Treasury
Bullish
BULLHybrid
Riot Platforms
RIOTMiner + Treasury
CleanSpark
CLSKMiner + Treasury
Semler Scientific
SMLRHybrid
Capital B
ALCPB.PAPure-play Treasury
Metrics glossary
Tap the (i) symbol next to any card metric to jump here and read its definition.
BTC on balance sheet
Amount of Bitcoin in corporate reserve (holdings). Sourced from CoinGecko for covered treasuries; editorial fallback for the rest. Shown alongside the average acquisition cost (avg cost basis).
BTC value
BTC on balance sheet × BTC price at the selected stress scenario. It is the dominant asset on a treasury's balance sheet — which is why sensitivity to the BTC price (β) matters so much.
Total debt
Financial debt (convertibles, loans) + preferred shares treated as a liability against common equity. Preferreds are tracked separately when they exist (MSTR case: STRK + STRF).
Cash
Available cash and equivalents. In companies with an operating business (miners, Semler, Bullish) this cushion is widened by the core business cash flow; in pure-plays cash is practically the only buffer.
LTV (Loan to Value)
Debt ÷ BTC value. Below 35% is considered healthy; between 35-60% warrants watching; above 60% there is significant stress and a higher risk of a collateral call.
Debt coverage
(Cash + BTC value) ÷ (debt + preferreds). How many times obligations could be covered if assets were liquidated. Above 3× is comfortable; between 1.5-3× warrants watching; below 1.5× technical-insolvency risk begins.
Ruin price
BTC price at which NAV turns to zero. Below that level common shareholders are wiped out before creditors (zeroes-out). Formula: (debt + preferreds − cash) ÷ BTC on balance sheet.
Market price
Real intraday share quote sourced live from Yahoo Finance (converted to USD if the company trades in another currency). It is the benchmark against which the model measures the estimated change under stress.
Estimated price (NAV / β)
Price the model predicts for the share under the stress scenario. Computed as the MAXIMUM of two anchors:
- · NAV floor: NAV per share — assumes the mNAV multiple compresses to 1× (floor).
- · Beta model: market price × (1 + β × ΔBTC%) — projects linearly based on historical sensitivity.
- The NAV / β badge on each card shows which of the two is dominating the estimate. When both point to the same value, NAV indicates the current price is already compressed against the floor.
Margin to ruin
Additional percentage BTC drawdown the company could still absorb before reaching the ruin price. If slightly negative (> -30%) the company is in the critical zone; if very negative (< -60%) it has a wide cushion.
Solvency states
Next step
Found a HEALTHY treasury in the stress test trading near its NAV floor?
Cross-check it against the valuation multiple. The mNAV calculator tells you whether you'd pay a premium or discount over each company's actual BTC.
Treasury stress test — frequently asked questions
What is a Bitcoin treasury stress test?
A simulation of how a treasury company's balance sheet holds up under Bitcoin price drops: what happens to the value of its reserve, its coverage of obligations and its valuation if BTC falls 30%, 50% or more.
What is the ruin price of a treasury company?
The Bitcoin price below which the value of the company's BTC reserve no longer covers its obligations. The further the current price is from that level, the more margin the balance sheet has to absorb drawdowns.
What data does this simulator use?
The verified BTC holdings of each company from the SatsIntel directory and the live Bitcoin price. The stress scenarios — how deep a drop you test — are chosen by you.
Does a low mNAV mean a company is at risk?
Not by itself. A discount to NAV reflects market sentiment, not insolvency. Actual risk depends on debt and its maturities: a company with no leverage can trade below 1x indefinitely without being forced to sell BTC.
Financial data approximated from public sources (10-K, 10-Q, press releases). Betas are simplified estimates. This model intentionally ignores factors such as staggered debt maturities, specific covenants, the ability to sell BTC in the market and future operating cash generation — all of which can cushion or accelerate the path to ruin.
This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not a prediction of future share prices.